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We’re by means of the “amuse bouche” part of the NFL Playoffs with Tremendous Wild Card Weekend within the books, and actually … we didn’t study a ton. Exterior of the Cowboys dropping, it was all chalk, and the weekend was extra about hunting down the groups who received to say “we made the playoffs,” however actually had no enterprise being within the postseason to start with ( you Steelers and Eagles).
Now we will look extra intently on the groups left. The possibility of a wild upset that might affect the Tremendous Bowl is essentially eliminated, and you would make a compelling case for any of the eight groups left to make a run and probably hoist the Lombardi. In fact, we all know not all groups are created equal — and we’re nonetheless pretty early within the postseason course of. So let’s have a look at the groups left, and rank their probabilities.
NFC
The weather that makes the NFC most compelling this season are the classes the remaining groups fall in. We now have the favourite in Inexperienced Bay, two groups following an analogous blueprint that has a historical past of working with the Buccaneers and Rams, then the 49ers who’re an agent of chaos in an in any other case predictable playoff slate.
The Packers have been the category of the NFC since their Week 1 shocker towards the Saints. All the pieces continues to click on for Inexperienced Bay on the sphere, with Aaron Rodgers’ self-destruction off the gridiron being the one blemish on an in any other case spotless season. Clearly they’re going to be the favourite to make the Tremendous Bowl based mostly on standing alone, and the one factor that might wreck that is some kind of implosion.
The Buccaneers and Rams are actually attention-grabbing instances. Each are utterly in “win now” mode, with Tampa Bay setting the blueprint final season for taking growing old gamers and propping open the window with boat a great deal of money. Initially it appeared Los Angeles was doing a little minor retooling with their QB change to Matthew Stafford, however this gave strategy to main in-season acquisitions like Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller, who’ve elevated the staff right into a juggernaut.
In isolation the Rams have a greater roster high to backside, however they don’t have Tom Brady.
Final, however not least, we have now the 49ers. I’m certain not even essentially the most die-hard Niners fan would have anticipated the staff to do that effectively earlier than the beginning of the season. Be mindful they went in on buying and selling for Trey Lance, which appeared to precipitate an anticipated rebuild — however as a substitute San Francisco is simply enjoying actually nice soccer. The protection is powerful, the offense is unstable and harmful with Deebo Samuel being one of the crucial enjoyable dudes in all of soccer. They’re simply enjoyable to look at.
Listed below are my predictions for the NFC
That is completed by mapping potential outcomes to video games based mostly on a number of elements together with comparable video games, offensive/defensive anticipated factors, with an unbiased tilt for present roster power. I’ve bolded the outcomes I consider will occur, however different doable outcomes are listed with a purpose to work out the ultimate potential of a staff to win the Tremendous Bowl.
Divisional Spherical
Packers (62%) def. 49ers (38%)
Rams (55%) def. Buccaneers (45%)
Convention Championship
Rams (65%) def. 49ers (35%)
Buccaneers (62%) def. 49ers (38%)
Packers (61%) def. Buccaneers (39%)
Packers (58%) def. Rams (42%)
Probability of creating the Tremendous Bowl
Observe: These is not going to add as much as 100% because of unbiased odds
Packers: 60%
Rams: 54%
Buccaneers: 49%
49ers: 37%
AFC
The AFC is so totally different to the AFC it’s gorgeous. The place the NFC feels prefer it’s higher proper now, the AFC is the place the way forward for the whole league lies. We now have elite groups at present just like the Chiefs and Payments who’re a bit or two away from being world-beaters, and up an up and coming groups within the Bengals who’re destined for greatness until they’ve big entrance workplace mishaps.
Inside all this are the Tennessee Titans. This was a staff dominating all season lengthy, then Derrick Henry received damage. It modified the complexion of the whole season for the Titans, however this staff nonetheless saved successful video games. They beat the Rams and 49ers, who NFC playoffs groups, each with out Henry — then had been pushed by the Saints and misplaced to the Steelers, so it’s all very up within the air. There’s potential right here for a serious run, or an entire whiff. I don’t suppose there’s something in between.
The 2 greatest, most full groups within the division are the Chiefs and Payments, each of whom have the least potential to utterly blow up. They will cannibalize one another this weekend — which actually opens the door for one thing bizarre to occur. It’s not truthful how this performed out, however it’s what it’s.
There’s no query Cincinnati can be the feel-good staff to make it out of the convention. From worst within the NFL to the Tremendous Bowl utilizing younger gamers and training expertise can be one of the crucial outstanding turnarounds in current reminiscence. I truly suppose this has potential, simply due to how erratic the Titans are.
Listed below are my predictions for the AFC
That is completed by mapping potential outcomes to video games based mostly on a number of elements together with comparable video games, offensive/defensive anticipated factors, with an unbiased tilt for present roster power. I’ve bolded the outcomes I consider will occur, however different doable outcomes are listed with a purpose to work out the ultimate potential of a staff to win the Tremendous Bowl.
Divisional Spherical
Bengals (51%) def. Titans (49%)
Chiefs (56%) def. Payments (44%)
Convention Championship
Payments (67%) def. Bengals (33%)
Payments (61%) def. Titans (39%)
Chiefs (72%) def. Titans (28%)
Chiefs (62%) def. Bengals (38%)
Probability of creating the Tremendous Bowl
Observe: These is not going to add as much as 100% because of unbiased odds
Chiefs: 63%
Payments: 57%
Bengals: 41%
Titans: 39%
Tremendous Bowl successful probabilities
Utilizing the identical methodology, right here is each potential Tremendous Bowl matchup, and the favourite. As soon as once more my prediction shall be bolded.
49ers (53%) def. Bengals (47%)
Titans (51%) def. 49ers (49%)
Payments (64%) vs. 49ers (36%)
Chiefs (68%) def. 49ers (32%)
Buccaneers (60%) def. Bengals (40%)
Buccaneers (61%) def. Titans (39%)
Payments (53%) def. Buccaneers (47%)
Chiefs (56%) def. Buccaneers (44%)
Rams (67%) def. Bengals (33%)
Rams (69%) def. Titans (31%)
Rams (55%) def. Payments (45%)
Chiefs (59%) def. Rams (41%)
Packers (77%) vs. Bengals (23%)
Packers (74%) def. Titans (26%)
Packers (57%) def. Payments (43%)
Packers (54%) def. Chiefs (46%)
This all brings us to … probability to win the Tremendous Bowl
Packers: 16%
Chiefs: 15%
Rams: 14%
Payments: 14%
Buccaneers: 13%
49ers: 11%
Bengals: 9%
Titans: 8%
These are the cumulative odds of every staff shifting from their upcoming playoff recreation, by means of the divisional playoff spherical, successful the Convention Championship, and at last successful the Tremendous Bowl.
Naturally, when a staff is eradicated their share can be redistributed to the remaining groups, which is how we lastly convey us to 2 groups, each with an opportunity of successful all of it.
I believe this complete train is attention-grabbing in breaking down simply how shut all of the playoffs are after we take into account each issue. Your intestine proper now may say “____ is unquestionably successful all of it,” however in actuality there are such a lot of potential factors of failure alongside the best way that no person has a runaway probability early within the playoffs. That’s what makes all this enjoyable.
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